Serbia vs Germany Prediction: Goals, Team News and Best Bets for the Nations League
Serbia face Germany in Belgrade on Saturday in a crucial League A2 fixture in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League. The hosts are still searching for their first point of the campaign, while Germany need a strong result to keep their hopes of avoiding a relegation play-off alive. The contrasting situations make this an intriguing football matchup—but the available form points towards a controlled game rather than a goal-filled spectacle.
Germany have scored only five goals across their first four group matches, and every one of those games finished with three goals or fewer. Serbia have also found goals hard to come by, managing just three in the same number of outings. Although the home side’s defensive record is a concern, the combination of Germany’s modest scoring output and Serbia’s likely cautious approach supports an under-goals prediction.
Serbia vs Germany best bets
Under 3.5 goals at 1.77 with 1xBet
Both teams to score: No at 2.00 with 1xBet
Florian Wirtz to record one or more assists at 2.62 with 1xBet
Match prediction: Serbia 0-2 Germany
Goalscorer prediction: Kai Havertz and Felix Nmecha to score for Germany.
Serbia’s difficult Nations League campaign
Serbia’s recent results make for grim reading. Veljko Paunović’s team have lost all four of their Nations League matches so far, conceding an average of two goals per game. Their wider run has been similarly troubling: Serbia have lost their last six matches in all competitions and recorded only one victory since the end of last year.
The team’s problems are not limited to defending. Serbia have scored just three times in the group and have underperformed their expected goals by 7.4, suggesting that their finishing has fallen well short of the chances created. They also rank among the League A teams with the fewest touches in the opposition penalty area, a sign that they have struggled to sustain pressure in dangerous positions.
There is, however, an important boost for the hosts. Aleksandar Mitrović and Dušan Vlahović are both available after missing Serbia’s first four Nations League fixtures. Their presence gives the side more experience and threat in the final third, particularly if Serbia can deliver quality service into the penalty area. Still, two midfield regulars, Saša Lukić and Nemanja Maksimović, are suspended, which could weaken the team’s ability to win the ball and build attacks.
Germany have little room for error
Germany arrive in Belgrade under pressure of their own. Their opening four League A2 games have produced only five goals in total, and the team know that anything less than four points from their final two matches would leave them facing a relegation play-off. That urgency should encourage Germany to take the initiative, but it does not necessarily mean the visitors will play an open, high-scoring game.
Germany have shown signs of defensive improvement, conceding only once across their last three Nations League matches. Just two opponents have scored against them during the group stage, while the reverse fixture against Serbia ended in a 2-0 German victory. Those figures make another clean sheet a realistic possibility, particularly if the visitors control possession and limit Serbia’s opportunities to attack quickly.
Germany will be without Jamal Musiala and Serge Gnabry because of injuries. Coach Jürgen Klopp has included Niclas Füllkrug, who has been in productive scoring form at club level, and has also handed a senior call-up to 17-year-old prospect Wael Mohya. Florian Wirtz is expected to be central to Germany’s creative play, especially if Serbia defend deep.
Why under 3.5 goals is the leading prediction
The strongest angle in this Serbia vs Germany prediction is under 3.5 total goals. Germany’s four group matches have produced two, zero, one and two goals respectively, while Serbia’s attack has managed only three goals across the campaign. In addition, only one of Serbia’s last 12 matches has featured four or more goals.
Serbia’s defensive record might appear to argue against a low total, given the 13 goals they have conceded across their last five games. But the circumstances point towards a more measured approach. The hosts are likely to protect their shape, knowing that an early concession could leave them exposed to Germany’s counterattacks. Germany, meanwhile, have not been especially prolific in this competition and may focus on securing the points rather than forcing the tempo.
The reverse fixture finished 2-0, a scoreline that fits the broader pattern. Under 3.5 goals is priced at 1.77, implying a probability of roughly 56.5%. Given the teams’ scoring records and the likelihood of Serbia sitting deep, the chance of three goals or fewer appears higher. The best-value football prediction is therefore a match with a maximum of three goals.
Both teams to score: No
A Germany clean sheet is another appealing option. Serbia’s attacking numbers have been underwhelming, and the suspensions of Lukić and Maksimović could make it harder for the hosts to supply their returning strikers. Mitrović and Vlahović add genuine goal threat, but they will need service and space against a Germany side that has conceded only once in its last three Nations League outings.
Serbia were unable to score in the previous meeting, and their limited presence in the opposition box remains a concern. The “both teams to score: No” market at 2.00 offers a straightforward way to back Germany’s defensive edge, while recognising that Serbia’s two leading forwards could still make the contest competitive.
Florian Wirtz could unlock Serbia’s defence
Wirtz is the standout candidate to create a goal. His Nations League performances have earned him a rating of 7.72, and his expected-assist numbers place him among the competition’s most effective creators. He has also completed 33 line-breaking passes, a valuable quality against a team expected to defend in a compact block.
The Germany playmaker’s ability to find pockets of space between midfield and defence could be decisive. If Serbia concentrate on containing Havertz and Füllkrug, Wirtz may have opportunities to slip passes through or create chances from wide areas. His recent club form offers further encouragement, although an assist is never guaranteed—particularly in a match that may feature limited scoring chances. At 2.62, backing Wirtz to register at least one assist is a higher-risk option with a clear tactical case behind it.
Expected lineups
Serbia: Vanja Milinković-Savić; Nedeljković, Strahinja Pavlović, Eraković, Kostić; Sergej Milinković-Savić, Aleksandar Stanković, Samardžić; Tadić; Vlahović, Mitrović.
Germany: ter Stegen; Anton, Tah, Schlotterbeck; Mittelstädt, Kimmich, Aleksandar Pavlović; El Mala, Wirtz, Nmecha; Havertz.
Final prediction: Germany have the stronger squad and the more reliable recent defensive form, while Serbia’s home advantage and returning forwards should not be dismissed. Even so, Germany are the likelier winners in a match that may stay tight. A 2-0 away victory is the predicted score, with under 3.5 goals the leading selection.
